Overturning Roe

Last evening I listened to the Wednesday edition of Focus on the Family with Dr James Dobson. The intent of the broadcast was to allay the concerns of conservative Christians over the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. Dr Dobson mentioned several reasons, all I had heard before, why he supports this nomination. He also said there were things he was told in confidence that he did not feel free to repeat, -reasons that evidently indicated that Miss Miers was a strict constructionist and could be trusted by his audience.

Dr Dobson became very emotional towards the end of the radio broadcast and twice used the phrase "the blood of so many babies"... which obviously indicates his main concern and what he feels lies in the balance with next justice added to the court.

Now I am not a lawyer and I am certainly no constitutional scholar, so I may need some help with this. If my understanding of this issue is wrong or you feel my predictions are wrong, please leave a comment.

If Roe vs Wade is overturned, I predict the following will happen the very next day:

Nothing.

Police will not be heading out to arrest abortionist physicians. Abortion clinics will not be closed. The laws will not revert to pre-Roe statutes.

One year after Roe is overturned abortion will still be legal in every blue state and almost every red state. In a few of the more conservative areas in the "Bible Belt" state legislatures will have passed laws that strictly limit or ban the procedure. Pro-Choice groups will be protesting there as they pass out bus tickets and plane tickets to poor pregnant women so that they may travel to the nearest city where abortion is legal.

Except in the case of a really barbaric procedure such as partial birth abortion, Federal legislators will conveniently and perhaps cowardly agree with the Court that abortion is not a Federal issue and leave it to the state legislatures to sort things out. The tenth amendment will rule the day.

There will be talk of a constitutional amendment banning all abortion, but like today there will be insufficient support for it.

I have a great deal of respect for Dr James Dobson. There is not a more humble and sincere Christian leader in this country but I believe he is wringing his hands for little purpose. While I believe that abortion is morally wrong and that Roe is bad constitutional law and should be overturned, abortion is here to stay because it is part of our culture now. Its just so very convenient, and there is insufficient will in this sad hedonistic country to make it go away.

There are many goals in the "Left's" playbook that will never be achieved without the help of a liberal, activist court... and the importance of each nomination cannot be overstated. But Roe has become less important than the change that it has wrought in this country's thinking and character. There would be a few less abortions if Roe was overturned, but it would be just the first step in a very short trip.

I am not personally pleased with these conclusions, but I think it is important that the Conservative Christian Right begins to talk about the realities of this situation. The truth would work in our favor serving to defuse the hysterics displayed by NOW, NARAL, and other rabidly pro-abortion groups. Overturning Roe would be a good first step on principle if nothing else, but it is sobering to consider that it represents the easy part of the road ahead.